Reaching Critical Mass: The Diffusion of Anomalous Information
IN RECENT YEARS the United States Government has released footage, taken from the aircraft of US Navy pilots, of what has been referred to as Unidentified Aerial Phenomena (UAP). The aerial phenomena observed in the videos was officially characterised as “unidentified”. (Department of Defense, 2020). Then in the August of 2020, the Department of Defense (2020a) confirmed the creation of an Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force to “improve its understanding of, and gain insight into, the nature and origins of UAPs. The mission of the task force is to detect, analyse and catalog UAPs that could potentially pose a threat to U.S. national security.” (Department of Defense, 2020a). A preliminary UAP report was compiled by the UAPTF in conjunction with the Office of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI) which presented to the American Congress in June, 2021. Their results found that “144 reports originated from USG sources. Of these, 80 reports involved observation with multiple sensors.” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021). Additionally, they found that in 18 of 21 reported incursions, observers reported unusual UAP movement patterns or flight characteristics. Most interestingly, the UAP reports that some UAP appeared to be able to “remain stationary in winds aloft, move against the wind, manoeuvre abruptly, or move at considerable speed, without discernible means of propulsion”. (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021). Additionally, the UAP reported that in a small number of cases military aircraft systems were able to process “radio frequency energy” associated with UAP sightings and whether breakthrough technologies have been demonstrated. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2021) asserts that the UAPTF holds information and data in which UAP demonstrates acceleration or a degree of signature management, however they are careful to advocate further analysis are by technical experts to determine the nature and validity of these data. Issues arose with sensors mounted on U.S. military platforms that are typically designed to fulfil specific missions and are not generally suited for identifying UAP. Therefore, the UAP reporting issues leading to issues of transparency are vast and not subjected to one or two specific issues.
Further to this UAP preliminary report, President Joesph Biden signed into law the Defense Authorisation Act (NDAA) proposal amendment for fiscal year 2022, first introduced by the United States Congress (2021). Within the act was a amendment proposal by Senator Kristen Gillibrand (www.gillibrand.senate.gov, 2021) that would be given the task of providing a full spectrum of intelligence, scientific, and technical assessments related to UAPs that will include: “Report to Congress”, “Collection & Analysis of Data into a Central Repository”, “Establish a Science Plan”, “Build a National Priorities Intelligence Framework”, “Build a National Priorities Intelligence Framework” and “Evaluate any links between UAPs and foreign governments or non-state actors”.
Arguably therefore, the seriousness of the UAP issue cannot be understated, and yet despite the real world question of potential “breakthrough technologies” (Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021), we still find very little academic or institutional attention been given to this technology. It might be argued that there is a social perception associated to the UAP issue due primarily to the psychological stigma attributed to Unidentified Flying Objects (UFOs) and extra-terrestrials. As suggested in the UAPTF and DNI preliminary UAP report, “UAP Collection Challenges Sociocultural stigmas and sensor limitations remain obstacles to collecting data on UAP.” (The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021). Currently, despite a widespread search, there remains no Quantitative or Qualitative research which evaluates reasons as to why service men and women within the United States Government might or might not report a UAP encounter. Although the UAPTF report hypothesises a “disparagement associated with observing UAP, reporting it, or attempting to discuss it with colleagues.” (The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021) there is no validation of such claims within academic research. Our academic literature search found only one opinion piece reference (Rapport, J., 2020) that mentioned stigma and the issue of UFO reporting. To date, there are only six Navy Pilots (from 2 cases – Nimitz, 2004 and Roosevelt 2014/15) who have come forward to officially be verified in UAP encounters, despite the significant number of cases reported by the UAPFT.
“For a new idea to grow and flourish, there needs to be a social baseline which can sustain and hold the boundaries of such an emerging idea.”
Consequently therefore, to further understand the underpinning of this detrimental issue, we must consider all potential barriers to open UAP transparency. First and foremost we should consider barriers and promotion to UAP data in context of the Diffusion of Innovation Model (Rogers, M. 1962, 1995, 2014). Although it should be noted that a vast array of predicative models to behaviour should be applied. Research in recent years for example, has found the advantages for implementing Diffusion of Innovation characteristics to other psychological models, specifically, such compatibility predicted intent along with the Theory of Planned Behaviour variables (Warner et al., 2020). Rogers argued that “diffusion” is the process by which an “innovation” is communicated over time among the participants in a complex social system. Essentially, there are five main elements of significant influence that spread a new idea: “innovation”, “adopters”, “communication channels”, “time”, and a “social system”. If we take the new idea to be ‘UAP’ then we can assess how and why information does or doesn’t spread through a social platform within society using variables from predictive models and frameworks. The work of Rogers suggests that the process relies on social capital and that innovation must be widely adopted to become self-sustained.
Essentially, for a new idea to grow and flourish, there needs to be a social baseline which can sustain and hold the boundaries of such an emerging idea, allowing the “conversation” of UAP to be reframed from stigma and stereotyping, thus allowing Navy pilots, military personnel, Congressmen and Senators to come forward openly without perceived barriers. Consequently, with regards to UAP promotion campaigns, this means that an online social media network of relationships among people who engage within in a specific (subculture) society, enabling that society to function effectively. Moore and McKenna (2009) theorise that there will come a point in which innovation reaches “critical mass”, this tipping point between niche appeal and mass (self-sustained) adoption is simply known as "the chasm". Essentially, the idea of UAP becoming widespread as a significant real world issue and a positive innovation within society as a whole can be classed as this proposed critical mass.
Future research would do well to implement models and frameworks when applying critical evaluations into why specific people of influence (with regards to UAP) do not come forward with information. Although the UAPTF reported the effects of stigma have lessened in recent years, there are still “senior members of the scientific, policy, military, and intelligence communities engage on the topic seriously in public, reputational risk may keep many observers silent, complicating scientific pursuit of the topic.” (The Office of the Director of National Intelligence, 2021). Additionally, any future research might also consider in-depth Qualitative studies alongside the Diffusion of Innovation Model (Rogers 1962) or the adopted Theory of Planned Behaviour (Madden, Ellen and Ajzen, 1992) to both understand UAP barriers to transparent behaviours and how to apply social networks which allow critical mass to occur. In summary, if we wish further UAP transparency we need to understand the attitudes of those with sensitive information and change the psycho-social paradigm.
References
Department of Defense (2020). Statement by the Department of Defense on the Release of Historical Navy Videos. [online] U.S. Department of Defense. Available at: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2165713/statement-by-the-department-of-defense-on-the-release-of-historical-navy-videos/
Department of Defense (2020a). Establishment of Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force. [online] U.S. Department of Defense. Available at: https://www.defense.gov/News/Releases/Release/Article/2314065/establishment-of-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-task-force/
Madden, T.J., Ellen, P.S. and Ajzen, I., (1992). A comparison of the theory of planned behavior and the theory of reasoned action. Personality and social psychology Bulletin, 18(1), pp.3-9.
Moore, G.A. and McKenna, R. (2009). Crossing the Chasm: Marketing and Selling High-Tech Products to Mainstream Customers. Revised edition ed. [online] Amazon. HarperCollins e-books. Available at: https://www.amazon.com/dp/B000FC119W/ref=dp-kindle-redirect?_encoding=UTF8&btkr=1 [Accessed 17 Feb. 2022].
Office of the Director of National Intelligence (2021). Preliminary Assessment: Unidentified Aerial Phenomena. [online] Available at: https://www.dni.gov/files/ODNI/documents/assessments/Prelimary-Assessment-UAP-20210625.pdf.
United States Congress (2021). Text - H.R.4350 - 117th Congress (2021-2022): National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2022. [online] www.congress.gov. Available at: https://www.congress.gov/bill/117th-congress/house-bill/4350/text.
Rapport, J., (2020). American Cosmic: UFOs, Religion, Technology, by DW Pasulka. International Journal for the Study of New Religions, 11(1), pp.128-130.
Rogers, E.M. and Bulletin, M. (1962). BIBLIOGRAPHY ON THE DIFFUSION OF INNOVATIONS. [online] Available at: https://core.ac.uk/download/pdf/159565859.pdf [Accessed 17 Feb. 2022].
Rogers, E.M. (1995). Diffusion of Innovations: Modifications of a Model for Telecommunications. Die Diffusion von Innovationen in der Telekommunikation, pp.25–38.
Rogers, E.M., Singhal, A. and Quinlan, M.M., (2014). Diffusion of innovations (pp. 432-448). Routledge.
Warner, L.A., Diaz, J.M., Silvert, C., Hobbs, W. and Reisinger, A.J. (2020). Predicting Intentions to Engage in a Suite of Yard Fertilizer Behaviors: Integrated Insights from the Diffusion of Innovations, Theory of Planned Behavior, and Contextual Factors. Society & Natural Resources, 34(3), pp.373–392.
www.gillibrand.senate.gov. (2021). Gillibrand’s Groundbreaking Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Amendment Included In Final NDAA | Kirsten Gillibrand | U.S. Senator for New York. [online] Available at: https://www.gillibrand.senate.gov/news/press/release/gillibrands-groundbreaking-unidentified-aerial-phenomena-amendment-included-in-final-ndaa_
Article cover pic by PongMoji/istockphoto.com
